Retail Media Market Size and Share 2027: every public forecast compared

Retail media ad spend is money advertisers pay to retailers, marketplaces and delivery apps for ads on their properties or ads bought with their shopper data. Most forecasters count sponsored product search and onsite display. They split on four things: offsite ads, in-store screens, connected TV bought with retail data, and whether non-retail commerce media counts. Our commerce media vs retail media explainer draws the line, and the retail media hub explains how a retail media network works.

The table lists every public forecast we could read with its date and definition. Figures are as published, in the publisher's currency. A forecast is an estimate; the publisher and date travel with it.

Not in the table. We found no public Magna retail media figure we could read, so Magna is listed under "What we could not verify". We used no Statista figure, because none we saw named its underlying source. We found no 2026 forecast for Canada or India with a named publisher and date.

Definitions do most of the work. The two IAB Europe figures show it. The October 2025 update put 2024 at €13.7 billion under a broad scope. The AdEx report of July 2026 puts 2025 at €13.314 billion under a narrower one (PPC Land, 8 July 2026). The later year looks smaller, yet the market grew 16.7%. A reader who mixes the two would report a decline that never happened.

Geography and currency change the base. WARC and WPP Media count the whole world. eMarketer counts the US, IAB Europe counts Europe and IAB UK counts Britain. Currencies differ too: dollars, euros and pounds do not add up without a stated exchange rate. IAB Europe itself converts US figures at a fixed $1.131 per euro (PPC Land, 8 July 2026).

Amazon decides the growth rate. Amazon reported $68.6 billion of advertising revenue for 2025 (PPC Land, 10 April 2026). That is about a third of WARC's global 2026 total on its own. So WARC's 2027 growth is 11.5% with Amazon and 9.8% without it. A forecast that excludes Amazon, or counts only its retail ads, will look very different.

Commerce is not retail. WPP Media's $178.2 billion for 2025 is "commerce advertising", which goes beyond retailers. IAB's 12.1% US growth figure is for "commerce media", which includes banks, travel firms and delivery apps (PPC Land, 31 January 2026). Our commerce media networks directory lists those non-retail sellers.

Vintage matters. Forecasts move. WPP Media's mid-2025 figure followed a downgrade for trade disruption (PPC Land, 10 June 2025). Always quote the publication date with the number.

A worked example. Suppose a CFO divides eMarketer's US figure for 2026 ($69.33 billion) by WARC's global figure ($200.4 billion). The result says the US is 35% of the world market (eMarketer, November 2025; The Desk, 19 August 2026). The ratio mixes two definitions, two methods and two publication dates nine months apart. It is a rough cross-check, not a market share. To build a business case, use one forecaster's series end to end and model your own network with the retail media economics calculator.

Share data is scarcer than size data. These are the public splits we could source.

What the companies disclose. Amazon Ads reported $68.6 billion of advertising revenue for 2025 and $17.2 billion in Q1 2026 (PPC Land, 1 May 2026). Walmart's global ad business, including Walmart Connect, VIZIO and Flipkart, reached about $6.4 billion in fiscal 2026 (PPC Land, 22 February 2026). These are company figures, not shares; the directory's disclosed revenue table lists the others.

The long tail is crowded. One presentation reported by PPC Land, citing eMarketer, counted more than 50 US networks competing for the share left after Amazon and Walmart (PPC Land, 30 July 2025). That pressure is behind the deals tracked in retail media consolidation, such as DoorDash's agreement to buy Instacart (CNBC, 28 October 2026).

Europe's retail media is growing faster than search or display. IAB Europe puts 2025 spend at €13.3 billion, with retail search up 19.1% to 17.8% of all search spend (PPC Land on IAB Europe AdEx, 8 July 2026). Its October 2025 outlook expects €28.8 billion by 2028 on the broader scope (PPC Land, 11 October 2025). WARC adds that Amazon took more than two thirds of retail media spend in each of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK in 2025 (The Desk, 19 August 2026).

UK retail media is growing faster than any other digital channel. IAB UK measured £1.5 billion of online retail media in the first half of 2025 (PPC Land, 26 September 2025). A year later the half-year figure was £2 billion, up 32%, against 13% growth for UK digital as a whole (Internet Retailing, 7 October 2026). That puts retail media ahead of gaming, digital out-of-home and classifieds in the UK. The UK networks behind the number are listed in the directory.

1. Pick the geography first. Use eMarketer for the US, IAB Europe for Europe, IAB UK for Britain and WARC or WPP Media for the world.
2. Match the definition. Check whether the figure includes offsite, in-store, CTV and non-retail commerce media.
3. Decide on Amazon. For a mid-sized retailer, the market without Amazon is the relevant one; WARC's 9.8% is the closest public figure.
4. Quote the date. Write "WARC, August 2026", not "analysts say".
5. Do not mix series. Use one publisher's numbers for growth rates, and keep cross-checks out of headlines.

The retail media 2027 outlook separates what is scheduled from what is forecast, and the revenue benchmarks article shows what share of sales a single network can expect.

• Magna. Magna's June 2025 global forecast is reported by Marketing Dive, but we could not read a retail media figure from it. We list none.
• WPP Media's December 2025 retail media line. The public summary gives "commerce advertising"; we did not find a separate retail media figure.
• IAB US dollar total. The January 2026 Outlook summary gives only a growth rate for commerce media.
• Canada and India. We found no dated 2026 market-size forecast with a named publisher.
• Australian benchmark. A July 2025 presentation reported by PPC Land put Australian retail media at $650 million in 2025 rising to $3 billion by 2027, but did not name the forecaster. We left it out of the table.

1. The Desk, "WARC: Retail media ad market to top $200 billion as growth slows" (19 August 2026). https://thedesk.net/2026/08/warc-retail-media-ad-market-to-top-200-billion-as-growth-slows/
2. PPC Land, "WPP revises global ad forecast to $1.08 trillion amid trade disruptions" (10 June 2025). https://ppc.land/wpp-revises-global-ad-forecast-to-1-08-trillion-amid-trade-disruptions/
3. PPC Land, "WPP Media sees AI as advertising's $1.3 trillion growth engine in 2026" (18 June 2026). https://ppc.land/wpp-media-sees-ai-as-advertisings-1-3-trillion-growth-engine-in-2026/
4. PPC Land, "Retail media projected to capture 20% of global ad revenue by 2030" (5 September 2025, on Omdia research of 4 September 2025). https://ppc.land/retail-media-projected-to-capture-20-of-global-ad-revenue-by-2030/
5. eMarketer, retail media ad spending forecast and trends, H2 2025 (November 2025). https://www.emarketer.com/content/retail-media-ad-spending-forecast-trends-h2-2025
6. P2PI, "Grocery Retail Media Networks: A Journey From Side Hustles to Strategic Engines" (16 September 2025). https://p2pi.com/grocery-retail-media-networks-journey-side-hustles-strategic-engines
7. PPC Land, "IAB forecasts 9.5% ad growth as marketers shift toward agentic AI" (31 January 2026). https://ppc.land/iab-forecasts-9-5-ad-growth-as-marketers-shift-toward-agentic-ai/
8. PPC Land, "European retail media spending reaches €13.7 billion with 21.1% growth" (11 October 2025). https://ppc.land/european-retail-media-spending-reaches-eu13-7-billion-with-21-1-growth/
9. PPC Land, "IAB Europe: retail media gains 16.7% as video passes half of EU display" (8 July 2026). https://ppc.land/iab-europe-retail-media-gains-16-7-as-video-passes-half-of-eu-display/
10. PPC Land, "UK retail media spending drives digital ad growth to £45 billion by 2026" (26 September 2025). https://ppc.land/uk-retail-media-spending-drives-digital-ad-growth-to-45-billion-by-2026/